See medicine shortages coming, months before they are listed.
Dónvara Supply Watch forecasts shortages for every medicine on the Australian register, from public data, and tells a health system what each one means for its own stock: how long it has, which product is thinnest, and what to hold.
What it tells a buyer
The forecast runs on public sources: shortage registers in 23 countries, US and European factory inspection records, manufacturers' disclosures, Section 19A approvals and the TGA's own history. Under a data-sharing agreement it is set against a customer's usage and stock, which stay with the customer.
What is coming
A ranked list of the medicines most likely to go short in the next 3, 6 and 12 months, refreshed monthly.
How long we have
Months of cover by form and product, from your own issues and stock on hand.
Which product is exposed
Where each medicine is made, the plants it depends on, and which brand would take the load when one fails.
What to hold, and what it costs
A stock holding at the certainty you choose, so extra cover is bought only on the lines that need it.
Tested on history, now tested in the open
The forecast was rebuilt as it stood at every quarter since July 2019 and scored each year using only what was known before that year began.
- 0.83–0.90Accuracy in ranking Critical shortages (AUC) in each year from 2021 to 2025, where 0.5 is chance and 1.0 is perfect.
- 2 in 5Critical shortages caught a quarter ahead by a 50-medicine watch list refreshed each quarter, at sixteen times the base rate.
- 148Critical hospital medicines mapped to the plants that make them, 43 of them traced by hand from ingredient to ward.
Who it is for
Health departments and state procurement. A tested basis for reserve lists, and early warning to go long on a line before the gap opens instead of buying at a premium after it.
Hospital networks and private groups. Shortage work that starts from a ranked monthly list, with fewer emergency sourcing episodes and fewer unfamiliar substitutions reaching wards.
The Commonwealth. A critical medicines list with a tested forecast behind it, and stockpile rotation guided by shortage risk as well as expiry.
Sponsors, importers and wholesalers. Which listings will open a gap large enough to matter, and who else makes the ingredient.
Talk to us
We are working with a small number of health systems on the first data-sharing agreements. If you buy, hold or regulate medicines in Australia, we would like to hear how shortages land for you.
Email hello@donvara.com